Citizens & Public Opinion
Effects of the Fidesz-government’ long-term negative campaigning against Ferenc Gyurcsány
Introduction: the negative Fidesz-campaign-phenomenon
The case of Fidesz’ campaigning against one of their opponents, Ferenc Gyurcsány is an interesting case of negative campaigning, that is, putting the political opponent into a bad light, either directly or indirectly (through the tone of the framing). From 2019, Fidesz has started to recall the events of 2006: the leaking of Gyurcsány’s – an opposition party-leader and former prime-minister (PM) – memo saying, ‘we have fucked up, not a little, a lot’, and protesters requesting his resignation were shot. Fidesz refers to the ‘shooting of people’s eyes’ in parliament, and in the media (HVG videó,2021; Kovács,2021; Index,2021; Hirado.hu,2021; Magyar Hírlap,2021). They use the case as an answer-to-all-comments (e.g., ‘since the government is not left-wing, do not expect eyeshooting’) (Bauer,2021; HVG,2020). Then, in early 2021 Fidesz has funded posters and YouTube ads (called the ‘Gyurcsány show’), declaring the oppositional candidates running for PM to be the ‘puppets’ of the ‘eyeshooter’ Gyurcsány (Mandiner,2021; Fidesz,2021a), regardless them being from different political parties. When unexpectedly a candidate stepped back, they adopted and continued the ‘Gyurcsány show’ series with a new focus on the remaining candidates (Fidesz,2021b).
They went as far as funding of a cinema movie, Elk*rtuk (‘we have fucked up’) about the aforementioned events of 2006, under the Gyurcsány-government. The movie has been released in October 2021, featuring real footage of Gyurcsány (Port.hu,n.d.; Megafilm,2021).
The latest propaganda, arguing ‘do not let Gyurcsány back in power’ (Fidesz,2021c) now refers to the well-established notion of Gyurcsány being a ‘puppet-master’ behind all oppositional candidates. There is no option to vote for the opposition without ‘voting for him’.
Opinion: well, the Fidesz-tactic will work in theory
Relevance
Negative campaigning has been widely studied due to its effects on public opinion and consequently, elections. Scholars must pay close attention to this in Hungary, near the upcoming elections, to prevent the far-right negative campaigning’s success – that is a threat to all of us, learning from the events leading up to the second world war (Childers,2021).
Connected problem
Negative campaigning – including that of Fidesz – is problematic, because of 1) negativity’s normative effect – that is, voters dislike negativity (Nai,2018) – and 2) the so-called ‘negativity bias’ (Rozin and Royzman,2001; Lau,1982). The latter is because negative emotions (notion of loss) are more powerful than positive emotions (notion of gain) (Baumeistern et al., 2001, p. 323; Tversky & Kahneman,1981), so voters will prioritise negative news about the opposition – over positive ones – and will dislike the left-wing more. This becomes an issue because the left-wing stays ‘powerless’: while negative campaigning works for right-wing parties (it has positive net effect while also effectively reduces the support of the target) (Kaid,1997; Fridkin and Kenney,2004; Coulter,2008; Lau et al.,2007), left-wing parties cannot ‘comeback’ with a similar campaign, since negative campaigns work better for conservative parties (Haselmayer, 2019, p. 356). There is discursive imbalance in political campaigning.
Position
This, in my opinion, leads to a discursive ‘deadlock’, favouring the right-wing dominance in a democracy, where equality should be a given. As it seems to me, Fidesz is on the right track – with embedding Gyurcsány’s name and past into the discourse about the left-wing –, for this to affect public opinion at the elections, in their favour. The well-used negativity bias may lead to electoral behaviour that reinforces the one-party system of Hungarian democracy, existing since 2010 – and keeps the far-right leadership in its strong position, which had devastating consequences for Europe, in times of crisis before (Childers,2021).
Although, I think the Fidesz-regime has achieved to adjust the Hungarian discourse, creating a political discursive ‘deadlock’ (Baumeistern et al., 2001, p. 323; Tversky & Kahneman, 981; Haselmayer, 2019, p. 356), there is solution, in theory. Fidesz has discursively linked Gyurcsány’s name to negative events as well as to the entire opposition, which now construct a triangle of negativity, where only Fidesz is left as the ‘positive’ option. They have well-established the notion that Gyurcsány would ‘get back into power’ if any of the opposition candidates win the upcoming elections, with which would also come negative consequences (e.g., higher taxes, no month-13 pension, healthcare-privatisation) (vasárnap.hu,2021; M1 – Híradó,2022). But discourse can be deconstructed.
Conclusion: but what to do about it?
In sum, based on theories supporting right-wing parties’ benefit from negative campaigning that allows them to ‘use’ voters’ negativity bias, I see the far-right Fidesz’s success in shaping Hungarian discourse, that now links Gyurcsány’s name and all opposition-candidates to negative events. The link does not need much explanation anymore, in the campaign. It has become part of everyday-discourse (Fidesz,2021c), and the left-wing opposition cannot make use of voters’ negativity bias, to comeback (Haselmayer, 2019, p. 356) – while negativity remains a stronger emotion (Baumeistern et al., 2001, p. 323; Tversky & Kahneman, 1981). Although, assessing discourse as a social construction (Foucault, 1969/2002), it is possible to deconstruct (Saussure in Peoples&Vaughan-Williams, 2010/2020, pp. 96-113).
The negative discourse about Gyurcsány, as well as the discourse linking him to all opposition parties, can be reversed through social deconstruction of his name’s meaning. For example, meriting from the case of self-deprecating humour deconstructing the dominant Hikikomori and NEET discourses against unemployed people staying home in Japan (Ayashiro, 2015). Humour is positive, therefore left-wing parties can make use of it, unlike negative campaigning (Haselmayer, 2019, p. 356). It will be interesting to see whether, and if, what the left-wing comes up with in these few weeks left before the elections, to reverse this discourse.
References
Ayashiro, H. (2015). Deconstructing dominant discourse using self-deprecating humor: A discourse analysis of a consulting with Japanese female about hikikomori and NEET. Wisdom in Education, 5(2), 2. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/wie/vol5/iss2/2
Bauer, T. (2021, October 21). Már megint „szemkilövetés” [Once again ‘eyeshooting’]. Mandiner. Retrieved from https://mandiner.hu/cikk/20211021_bauer_tamas_velemeny_szemkilovetes
Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer, C., & Vohs, K. D. (2001). Bad is Stronger than Good. Review of General Psychology, 5(4), 323–370. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.5.4.323
Childers, T. PhD. (2021, March 21). The Political Maneuvers of Adolf Hitler and the Nazis. The Great Courses Daily by Wondrium. Retrieved from https://www.thegreatcoursesdaily.com/the-political-maneuvers-of-adolf-hitler-and-the-nazis/
Coulter, K. S. (2008). The Tri-Mediation Model of persuasion: a case for negative political advertising?. International Journal of Advertising, 27(5), 853-883. https://doi.org/10.2501/S0265048708080311
Fidesz (2021a, May 15). A Gyurcsány Show [ The Gyurcsány show] [Facebook status update]. Retrieved from https://www.facebook.com/FideszHU/videos/819479051999014/
Fidesz (2021b, October 13). Dübörög a Gyurcsány Show [ The Gyurcsány show is rumbling] [Facebook status update]. Retrieved from https://www.facebook.com/FideszHU/videos/1300430450427325/
Fidesz (2021c, November 2). Ne engedjük vissza Gyurcsány Ferencet a hatalomba! [ Do not let Ferenc Gyurcsány back into power!] [Facebook status update]. Retrieved from https://www.facebook.com/FideszHU/videos/1495851634110021
Foucault, M. (2002). The Archaeology of Knowledge (2nd ed.). Routledge.
Fridkin, K. L., & Kenney, P. J. (2004). Do negative messages work? The impact of negativity on citizens’ evaluations of candidates. American Politics Research, 32(5), 570-605. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X03260834
Haselmayer, M. (2019). Negative campaigning and its consequences: a review and a look ahead. Fr Polit 17, 355–372.https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-019-00084-8
Hirado.hu (2021 September 17). Hallgassa meg az őszödi beszéd teljes felvételét! [Listent to the full Öszöd speech recording!]. Hirado.hu. Retrieved from https://hirado.hu/belfold/cikk/2021/09/17/hallgassa-meg-az-oszodi-beszed-teljes-felvetelet
HVG (2020, May 22). Szemkilövetőzött Orbán a Parlamentben [Orban is using the ‘eyeshooting’ in Parliament]. HVG. Retrieved from https://hvg.hu/itthon/20200525_Szemkiloveto_Orban_Gyurcsany_Parlament_oszodi_beszed
HVG video (2021, February 15). Orbán Viktor az őszödi beszédet idézi [Viktor Orbán quoting the speech of Öszöd][video file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuTFvfdHc6o
Kaid, L. L. (1997). Effects of the television spots on images of Dole and Clinton. American Behavioral Scientist, 40(8), 1085-1094. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764297040008009
Kovács, A. (2021, September 19). Az őszödi beszéd végleg leleplezte a gyurcsányi hazugságáradatot [The Öszöd speech has uncovered the Gyurcsány lies for good]. Origo. Retrieved fromhttps://www.origo.hu/itthon/20210916-oszodi-beszed-gyurcsany-ferenc-15-eve.html
Lau, R. R. (1982). Negativity in political perception. Political behavior, 4(4), 353-377. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00986969
Lau, R. R., Sigelman, L., & Rovner, I. B. (2007). The effects of negative political campaigns: A meta-analytic reassessment. The Journal of Politics, 69(4), 1176-1209. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00618.x
M1 – Híradó (2022, January 8). Márki-Zay: az egészségügy üzlet [Márki-Zay: the healthcare is business] [video file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMlDURJ74l8
Magyar Hírlap (2021, September 17). Közöljük Gyurcsány őszödi beszédének teljes szövegét [We’re publishing Gyurcsány’s Öszöd speech’s full text]. Magyar Hírlap. Retrieved from https://www.magyarhirlap.hu/belfold/20210916-kozoljuk-gyurcsany-oszodi-beszedenek-teljes-szoveget
Mandiner (2021, June 28). Óriásplakáton üzentek Karácsonynak: Ne adjunk a bukott Gyurcsány-shownak újabb esélyt [Message to Karácsony on giant posters: do not give another chance to the Gyurcsány-show]. Mandiner. Retrieved from https://mandiner.hu/cikk/20210628_budapest_szinhaz_gyurcsany_show_plakat
Megafilm (2021, September 16). ELK*RTUK TRAILER [The Cost of Deception trailer] [video file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ibr41M7rNTg
Nai, A. (2018). Going Negative, Worldwide: Towards a General Understanding of Determinants and Targets of Negative Campaigning. Government and Opposition, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.32
Peoples, C., & Vaughan-Williams, N. (2020). Critical security studies: An introduction (3rd ed.). Routledge.
Port.hu (n.d.) Elk*rtuk [The Cost of Deception trailer]. Port.hu. Retrieved from https://port.hu/adatlap/film/mozi/elkrtuk-elkrtuk/movie-229048
Sz. Z. (2021, September 17). A beszéd, amely megváltoztatta Magyarországot [The speech that has changed Hungary]. Index. Retrieved from https://index.hu/belfold/2021/09/17/oszod-15/
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211(4481), 453-458.
Vasarnap.hu (2021, September 17). Amit Gyurcsány Ferencék elvettek, azt ez a kormány mind visszaadta [What Gyurcsány Ferenc’s government took away, this government gave back all]. Vasárnap. Retrieved from https://vasarnap.hu/2021/09/17/amit-gyurcsany-ferencek-elvettek-azt-ez-a-kormany-mind-visszaadta/
Comments
Post a Comment